In the past two days several major cities have transitioned to an elevated Two-Week Cumulative Incidence Rate Class in Texas and Oklahoma, as shown in this map of changes to Incidence Rate Class:
Austin, Ft. Worth, San Antonio, and Tulsa have all moved to the “High” class, joining Dallas and El Paso. Oklahoma City has moved from “Moderate” to “Moderately high”.
Houston is predicted to join the “High” class when today’s results are reported tomorrow morning.
The Death Rate Class picture shows no changes in class for those major cities, as shown below, and we’ll see how the situation changes over the next few weeks:
Overall the situation nationally has changed quite a bit in the last few weeks. Below are two COVID-19 Travel Maps, one from May 27th an the second from June 17th. Notice that cases have eased in the North East but increased in the South, in Arizona, California, Utah, and now in Texas and Oklahoma.
These COVID-19 Travel Map are based on data from Johns Hopkins University, based on the two weeks prior to the map date.
The three layers on the map are:
Two-Week Cumulative Incidence Rate: A color fill indicating the number of new cases per 100,000 people in the two-week period. The value is the sum of each county’s number of reported cases in the past two weeks (in other words, the difference between the total number of cases from two weeks ago from the current total number of cases) divided by that region’s population. The resulting rate is multiplied by 100,000 to get a two-week cumulative incidence rate per 100,000 people.
Low/Green: There have been 10 or fewer new cases per 100,000 people in the past two weeks.
Moderate/Yellow: There have been between 10 and 50 new cases per 100,000 people in the past two weeks.
Moderately high/Orange: There have been between 50 and 100 new cases per 100,000 people in the past two weeks.
High/Red: There have been more than 100 new cases per 100,000 people in the past two weeks.
Two-Week Incidence Rate Trend: An outline for areas indicating how quickly new cases are growing. The bold outline is for areas growing at a rate of more than 30 new cases per 100,000 people per week. The light outline is for areas with growth in new cases of between 6 and 30 per 100,000 people per week. Areas without an outline may be relatively stable or have declining incidence rate trends.
Two-Week Cumulative Death Rate: A symbol for each area to indicate deaths per 100,000 people in the past two weeks.
Areas on this map with red fill, heavy black outline, and a maroon filled square inside are experiencing high numbers of new cases, substantial growth in new cases, and high rates of death per 100,000 people. Areas with blue fill and a gray open circle have experienced no COVID-19 deaths or new cases in the past two weeks.
The Death Rate Class Map shows much less widespread impact in Texas and Oklahoma at this point in time. Notice that for most counties in the state no deaths have been observed in the past two weeks:
For the maps above, population data is from the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau; raw COVID-19 data is from the COVID-19 Data Repository by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University.
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